Future Oriented Decision Making and Its Impact

Walter Mischel, a behavioral psychologist at Stanford University, examined impulsivity among five-year-old children. Mischel placed a small marshmallow in front of each child, instructing them if they wait to eat the marshmallow, he would reward them with two marshmallows when he returned. Some waited and subsequently enjoyed a second marshmallow; but for others, the temptation was too much—they forfeited the future reward for immediate pleasure. A few decades later, Mischel followed-up on these young marshmallow-eaters. He surprisingly discovered the five-year old’s that waited—on average—performed better in college, relationships and careers. The young children that waited displayed future oriented decision making. They made a sacrifice in the present that benefited the future.

Steven Southwick and Dennis Charney explain that the Marshmallow Test assesses “how well a child can delay gratification.” The ability to delay gratification is “an essential skill for success in life.” It involves tolerating the temporary discomfort of forgoing a smaller immediate reward for a larger reward in the future. Learning to delay gratification is “at the heart of willpower” (Southwick & Charney, 2018). Rarely is the choice and consequence so clearly available in real life as in a controlled experiment. However, the concept is the same. The skill of delaying gratification benefits our futures and contributes to wellness.

Key Definition:

Future-oriented thinking refers to the cognitive process of considering and planning for the future, encompassing the anticipation of potential scenarios, outcomes, and opportunities. This mindset involves projecting forward and strategically making decisions based on long-term objectives and goals, rather than solely focusing on immediate needs or concerns.

Future Oriented Thinking and Goals

In personal development, future-oriented thinking encourages individuals to set and work towards long-term goals, visualize their desired outcomes, and adapt their current actions to align with their envisioned future. For businesses and organizations, this approach involves strategic planning, trend analysis, and forecasting to position themselves advantageously in a shifting landscape. Overall, future-oriented thinking empowers individuals and entities to navigate change, capitalize on emerging possibilities, and shape their desired future.

Real life decisions are more complex than choosing between a single treat now or double that treat later. The future lacks certainty. Wisdom teaches that suspending some immediate gratifications for bountiful futures is necessary. Restraining from immediate pleasure for predicted futures requires several skills. First, we must consider how the present action will impact the future. Second, we must have sufficient self discipline to delay pleasure.  Intervening with automatic reactions to impulse demands the limited resource of psychic energy. Without intentional intervention, we risk losing a dazzling future for the sparse benefits in the present.

See Ego Depletion and Delay of Gratification for more on these topics

Balance Between Future and Present

Ideally, we find balance between future oriented behaviors and present pleasures. We need both to maximize wellness in the moment and the future.

Todd Kashdan and Robert Biswas-Diener wrote:

“Often when you willingly and temporarily give up pleasure, it is replaced by an activity that sort of sucks: studying for an exam, running on a rainy afternoon, working on a report late into the night. In these cases, you opt for unpleasantness. Although you wouldn’t want them to dominate your life, they do make you stronger, and often lead to more success. The trick is to change your basic thinking from what you like to feel, to what is functional” (Kashdan & Biswas-Diener, 2015).

Benefits of Future Oriented Thinking

Future-oriented thinking can offer several benefits, particularly in terms of mental health and achieving long-term goals. Here are some ways it can be advantageous:

• Motivation and Expectation: When you’re motivated and expect a positive outcome in the future, you’re more likely to take the necessary steps to make it happen. This kind of thinking differs from mere fantasizing, as it involves planning and working towards a goal (Field, 2021).
• Visualization: Mental visualization of future success can improve performance. Athletes, for example, use visualization techniques to enhance their physical performance, as it stimulates the same brain areas as actual practice (Field, 2021).
• Delay Discounting: Future thinking can help overcome the tendency to prefer immediate, smaller rewards over larger, long-term benefits. By vividly imagining a positive future, you can connect more with your future self and make decisions that favor long-term rewards (Field, 2021).
• Managing Mental Health: Positive future thinking is linked to better mental health. It can help manage anxiety and depression by creating a habit of envisioning a hopeful and optimistic future (Field, 2021).
• Meaningful Life: Thinking about the future can also make life feel more meaningful. It allows you to make prudent decisions and fosters a sense of generosity and fulfillment.

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Engaging in future-oriented thinking can thus be a powerful tool for personal development and well-being.

Paul Kurtz wrote:

“We have the power to be and to become, and the key question is whether we are willing to seize the opportunities, take destiny into our own hands, and assume the responsibility for our future being” (Kurtz, 1997).

See Outcome Expectancies for more on benefits of future oriented thinking

Refining Future Oriented Predictions

Actions are maladaptive when they fail to secure our desires. Sometimes, we realize this too late. We look back and notice what we should have done. Wisdom is often clearer when we look backward. Our future minded skills must be refined. Our predictive skills vary. A lot depends on our willingness to honestly evaluate errors in predictions and make adjustments. If we consistently believe an action rewards differently than reality dictates, our future minded needs sharpening. Something is askew.

Complexity complicates decisions. The moment of choice is often not forced at any particular point; we have the option to wait. Opportunities can be squandered as we procrastinate, waiting for more information. The skill of predicting future consequences allows for early future oriented action with minimum failure.

Research suggests that we need more than fantasizing about the future to gaian the benefits of goal fulfillment. Lisa Aspinwall wrote, “in longitudinal field studies in domains as diverse as weight loss, employment after college, and dating, those who fantasized about future outcomes were consistently less likely to achieve them than those who held expectations of their attainment.” These finding suggest their is a missing piece. We need more than visualization.

What researchers found is that we need a process called mental contrasting. Mental contrasting refers to the cognitive process of “jointly considering potential outcomes and current realities.” This practice activates a functional relationship (Aspinwall, 2006). This concept matches well with waypower and willpower in C. Richard Snyder’ hope theory (Snyder, 2003).

See Hope Theory for more on this topic

Self-Deception

Instead of wisdom from error, we often employ defenses. We deny the impact of our choice on the resulting failure. Our wrong choices loses ego damaging poignancy but continues to haunt.

We need more clarity of vision—a strong nexus between choice and the consequence. If we can’t see the connection between our lack of punctuality, skill and attentiveness and being passed over for promotion, we won’t make the sacrifices needed to change.

​See Self-Deception more on this topic

Present Mindedness

​Behaviors focused on present reward still have some benefits. The single marshmallow is still sweet. The immediate rewards don’t always destroy futures. However, without the slightest future oriented thoughts, we destroy futures.

We usually don’t adopt maladaptive behaviors that lack some reward. We often fail to accurately weigh costs against future gains. And once habit takes hold, we just act without any thought at all. For example, with drug addictions, the victim continues the maladaptive behaviors long after the pleasures have ceased. Under the spell of addiction, new rules invade, utility of choice diminishes, and victims just act, moving towards our own demise.

These patterns of apply to more than an opiate craze addiction. We may habitually explode in anger, or shutdown from connection, or avoid opportunity. These actions all our present minded responses. We bow in servitude to the swelling feelings pushing for immediate action. Addictions befall us in countless fashions, diminishing future minded considerations.

The Cost of Present Mindedness

While present mindedness, the opposite of future oriented thinking, secures many immediate pleasures and escapes difficult emotions, present moment focus also exacts a heavy toll on futures, increasing future anxiety with multiplying difficulties.

​Wise choices with future benefits often demand momentary discomfort, utilizing energies to refrain from impulse now while constructing fruitful futures—less stress, more rewards.

Associated Concepts

• Outcome Expectancies: These are the anticipated consequences (positive or negative) of engaging in a particular behavior. Depending on our outcome expectancies, they may motivate or discourage action.
• Value Theory: This theory posits that the motivation to engage in a behavior is determined by the expectation that the behavior will lead to a certain outcome (expectancy) and the value that the individual places on that outcome (value).
• Episodic Foresight: This refers to the human ability to project oneself into future situations and mentally simulate actions and outcomes. Episodic foresight is a key skill that assists in making effective plans to obtain goals or avoid pain.
• Goal Setting: The process of identifying something that you want to accomplish and establishing measurable goals and timeframes. Outcome expectations can influence the goals we set.
• Rational Choice Theory: This theory explains human behavior and decision-making by positing that individuals weigh costs and benefits to maximize satisfaction. While influential across various disciplines, it faces criticism for oversimplifying complex behaviors, neglecting emotions, and assuming rationality.
• Mental Contrasting: This is a cognitive strategy that helps individuals achieve goals by juxtaposing desired future outcomes with present obstacles. Developed by Gabriele Oettingen, this technique enhances motivation and commitment by promoting a realistic appraisal of challenges.

A Few Words by Psychology Fanatic

When we act without intention, jumping at the strongest impulse, we often lose. Slow down and ask, “what are my options? What are the likely consequences? What can I do in the present to achieve the future I desire?”

We constructed our futures in the present. As we refine our future minded abilities, we have less prediction errors, resulting in more favorable results. We need to know which actions to take, how to refrain from destructive pleasures in the present, and how to adjust when unplanned events intrude. If we want to retire, increase intimacy, or live in a nice house, these worthy goals require action in the present, sacrificing the single sweet marshmallow for a much larger achievement later.

Would you like to eat that marshmallow now?

Last Update: November 14 , 2025