Exploring Uncertainty Avoidance: Coping with the Unknown

We live in the fuzzy muck of uncertainty. Science, politics, medical predictions, and nature creep in the dark corners of the unknowable. Our “knowledge” tentatively rests on unproven theories and reasonable guesses. Uncertainty avoidance in science is typically used to measure cultural differences in tolerating the unknown, however, we, as individuals, vary in our toleration skills and abilities. As we develop our ability to live with uncertainty, we more effectively adapt to the dynamic world of change—the world we call home.

Unpredicted pain ignites a different biological response, involving different regions of the brain. Robert M. Sapolsky, a professor of biology and neurology at Stanford University, wrote that, “It’s unpredictable pain, rather than pain itself, that activates the amygdala. Pain (and the amygdala’s response to it) is all about context” (Sapolsky, 2018).

Reid Hastie  and Robyn Dawes wrote in their comprehensive research in uncertainty and decision making that, “People who attempt to grasp the totality of situations in order to predict or control exactly what will happen seldom fare as well as those who seek the more modest goal of living with the uncertainty” (Hastie & Dawes, 2010).

Balancing Confidence and Uncertainty

Confidence is a child of certainty. We want confidence; it provides security but that confidence must be balanced with openness to new experiences, leading to continued growth and learning.  Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson warn that, “The unbending need to be right inevitably produces self-righteousness. When confidence and convictions are unleavened by humility, by an acceptance of fallibility, people can easily cross the line from healthy self-assurance to arrogance” (Tavris & Aronson, 2015).

Perhaps, the problem is we place confidence in the wrong object. We rely on our infallibility instead of confidently believing in our ability to discern personal error when more facts are available; confidence in the ability to adjust; confidence in openness; confidence in our ability to surf the changing waves of uncertainty.​

Intolerable Uncertainty

The psychology concept of intolerance for uncertainty is the underlying methodology leading to avoidance of uncertainty. Intolerable uncertainty (IU) refers to a situation or condition in which the lack of knowledge about an outcome or result becomes unbearable or difficult to manage. Intolerance for uncertainty is defined by Buhr and Dugas as “the excessive tendency of an individual to consider it unacceptable that a negative event may occur, however small the probability of occurrence” (Buhr & Dugas, 2002).

This feeling of unease or discomfort can arise in various aspects of life, such as personal relationships, health issues, financial matters, or geopolitical events. The inability to predict or control the future can lead to stress, anxiety, and a sense of helplessness. Edward Wahesh and Lauren Ondrejack explain:

“IU is a personality trait that contributes to many psychological problems, including generalized anxiety disorder, social anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and panic disorder” (Wahesh & Ondrejack, 2024).

Two Dimensions of Intolerance for Uncertainty

Psychology examines intolerance for uncertainty on two different but related dimensions (cognitive and behavioral).

The first dimension is prospective IU (i.e., desire for predictability). This involves the cognitive processes associated with IU, such as experiencing anxiety and fear in anticipation of future uncertainty. Accordingly, this dimension includes the unstopping flow of worries based on the unpredictable future. The cognitive aspect of this trait has power to disrupt life even when things are going well.

The second dimension is behavioral. This includes inhibitory IU (i.e., uncertainty paralysis). This aspect of IU manifests as inaction and impaired functioning in response to uncertain contexts. This dimension has many similarities and overlap with Jeffrey Gray’s (1981, 1987) concept of a behavioral inhibition system that gives priority to possible threats over activating behavior to secure opportunity.

See Behavioral Activation System for more on this concept

Wrong Choices

Life is complicated, each difficult decision has countless known and unknown factors. Hidden in each of these decisions is uncertainty, and inherent to uncertainty is wrong decisions. We could have made a choice that would have fared better if we knew the unknown circumstances. “If only, I had known,” we might muse.

“All of us have hard decisions to make at times in our lives; not all of them will be right, and not all of them will be wise” remind Tavris and Aronson. “Some are complicated, with consequences we could never have foreseen. If we can resist the temptation to justify our actions in a rigid, overconfident way, we can leave the door open to empathy and an appreciation of life’s complexity” (Tavris & Aronson, 2015).

External Factors of Uncertainty Avoidance

Our myopic view of uncertainty tolerance as a valuable characteristic is misguided. While we must comfortably tolerate some uncertainty, we can’t live in chaos. We need stability. We need certainties. Habits, routines, and reliable others stabilize our lives, leaving cognitive space to manage our inevitable changing environments.

Countries and regions with extreme political, economic, and environmental uncertainties tend to adopt more rigid standards in other areas to compensate. War torn countries tend to correlate with radical adherence to strict religious directives for behavior. Basically, the rules for right and wrong create a certainty. When money, safety and justice are uncertain, relying on uncontrollable factors, individuals are likely to adopt radical beliefs (conspiracies) that alleviate some of the discomfort of uncertainty.

Uncertainty Avoidance

Hastie and Dawes explain that, “A common way of dealing with our experience of the uncertainty in life is to ignore it completely, or to invent some ‘higher rationale’ to explain it” (Hastie & Dawes, 2010). Famous physicist Richard Feynman firmly counsels against using denial or faulty constructs to relieve the discomfort of uncertainty. He explains that, “If we are free of doubt or ignorance, we will not get any new ideas or make any progress”  (Castillo, 2010).

Avoiding uncertainty, dodging fears of being wrong, and imbuing the unknown with magical and unsupported explanations shakes our confidence in our strength to adapt.

See Adaptation Psychology for more on this topic  

Uncertainty Can Inspire Awe

Sarah Wilson in her wonderful book First, We Make the Beast Beautiful wrote that to live a wholehearted life we had to “get cool” with uncertainty. She explains that this requires us “to sit comfortably in mystery without grasping outward. To sit. To stay. And see what happens” (Wilson, 2018).

Instead of being a terrible monster, uncertainty is beautiful complexity. Our acceptance of the inevitable collisions with life from mispredictions doesn’t indicate we are flawed or stupid. We are small specks on a grand canvas. Our living existence in this wondrous universe can inspire awe.​

See Awe for more on this topic 

Coping with Uncertainty

Coping strategies for intolerable uncertainty may involve seeking information, creating contingency plans, or developing resilience to better handle unpredictable circumstances. The anxiety produced by fear can be challenging, but there are effective strategies to build resilience and mediate the impact. Here are some tips:

• Be Kind to Yourself:
  1. Recognize that everyone has different tolerance levels for unpredictability.
  2. Be patient with yourself during stressful situations; it takes time for things to resolve.
• Reflect on Past Successes:
  1. Remember times when you overcame stress or uncertainty.
  2. Consider what you did during those events that helped, and apply those lessons now.
• Develop New Skills:
  1. Step out of your comfort zone when life is calm.
  2. Trying new things builds confidence and prepares you for unexpected challenges.
• Limit Exposure to News:
  1. Constantly checking news can increase anxiety.
  2. Set boundaries and avoid news during vulnerable times (like before bedtime).
• Avoid Dwelling on the Uncontrollable:
  1. Resist ruminating on worst-case scenarios.
  2. Focus on what you can influence and let go of what’s beyond your control.
• Take Your Own Advice:
  1. Imagine advising a friend in your situation.
  2. Gain perspective and fresh ideas by looking at it from an outsider’s viewpoint.
• Engage in Self-Care:
  1. Maintain healthy routines: eat well, exercise, and get enough sleep.
  2. Practices like yoga and meditation can help manage stress.

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Remember, uncertainty is a part of life, and these strategies can help you navigate it more effectively! 

Associated Concepts

• Defense Mechanisms: This refers to unconscious adaptations individuals use to deal with discomforting circumstances.
• Prospect Theory: This theory, developed by psychologists Tversky and Kahneman, examines decision-making under uncertainty. It challenges traditional economic models and reveals human behavioral quirks, such as loss aversion and the impact of reference points.
• Approach-Avoidance Theory: This theory suggests that individuals are motivated to approach desirable stimuli and to avoid undesirable ones. This theory, proposed by psychologist Kurt Lewin, highlights the internal conflict people experience when they are simultaneously attracted to and repelled by the same goal or situation.
• Behavioral Activation System (BAS): This is a neurological network, regulates goal-directed behavior, motivation, and reward processing. It interacts independently with the Behavioral Inhibition System, affecting personality and psychopathology.
• Regulatory Focus Theory: This theory proposes that individuals differ in basic priorities for regulating emotion. He suggests that individuals are either promotion focused with an emphasis on growth, or prevention focused with an emphasis on safety and security.
• Motivational Orientation: This refers to an individual’s underlying motivation to accomplish tasks, goals, or activities. It reflects the underlying motivations that drive a person’s behavior and influence their choices.

A Few Words by Psychology Fanatic

Uncertainty is fundamental to hope, freedom of choice and ethical behavior. Hastie and Dawes explain that, “It is only because we do not know what the future holds for us…that we can have hope. It is only because we do not know exactly the future results of our choices that our choice can be free and can pose a true ethical dilemma.” Markedly, they believe that uncertainty is so fundamental that the wisest choice we can make is to accept its existence (Hastie & Dawes, 2010). 

We can comfortably live in the fuzzy muck of the unknown. We can sit with the wondrous world of complexity that surrounds every moment. Instead of avoidance of uncertainty, we can move with them, surfing their wild and exhilarating surprises. In conclusion, we can befriend the ever-present uncertainty, allowing its influence to add texture, richness, and meaning to our lives.

Last Update: January 10, 2026

References: 

Buhr, K., & Dugas, M. L. (2002). The Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale. Psychological Assessment, 14(4), 532-541. DOI: 10.1037/1040-3590.14.4.532
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Castillo, M. (2010). The Uncertainty of Science and the Science of Uncertainty. American Journal of Neuroradiology,31(10), 1767. DOI: 10.3174/ajnr.A2106
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Gray, Jeffrey Allen (1981) Critique of Eysenck’s Theory of Personality. H.J. Eysenck (ed.), in A Model for Personality Springer. ISBN: 9783642677854; DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-67783-0
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Gray, J. A. (1987). Perspectives on anxiety and impulsivity: A commentary. Journal of Research in Personality, 21(4), 493–509. DOI: 10.1016/0092-6566(87)90036-5
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Hastie, Reid; Dawes, Robyn M. (2010). ‎Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. SAGE Publications, Inc; Second edition. ISBN-10: 1412959039; APA Record: 2010-02957-000
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Sapolsky, Robert (2018). Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst. Penguin Books; Illustrated edition. ISBN-10: 1594205078
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Tavris, Carol; Aronson, Elliot (2015). Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts. Mariner Books; Revised, New edition edition. ISBN-10: 0547416032 APA Record: 2007-07067-000
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Wahesh, Edward & Ondrejack, Lauren (2024). Intolerance of uncertainty dimensions and alcohol problems: The effects of coping motives and heavy drinking. The Journal of Addictions and Offender Counseling, EarlyView. DOI: 10.1002/jaoc.12145
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Wilson, Sarah (2018). First, We Make the Beast Beautiful: A New Journey Through Anxiety. Dey Street Books. ISBN: 9780062836786
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