​Introduction: The Complex Risk Factors Associated with Future Addiction

I’m saddened by addiction’s devastating power to ravage normal psychological development, laying waste to motivation, clear thinking, and healthy social interaction. I’m straddled with guilt. Reliving the past, searching for parenting missteps I made during his formative years? These mind searches are fruitless. I’ll never discover a satisfactory answer—the past can’t be relieved; alternate solutions can’t be implemented.

We’re stuck in the present. So, I accept the unknown, and focus on his recovery. However, I have grandchildren now. Are there lessons that I can impart on my young children raising families of their own? If I could go back in time, say fifteen years, what signs should’ve I looked for? What behaviors and character traits would have signaled vulnerability? We must know what to look for before we can intervene and, perhaps, save a beloved child from the debilitating consequences of addiction.

Complex Network of Factors

A complex network of risk factors influences child development that lead to addiction. Environment being a significant one. Over the last several decades, many adolescent studies examining predictors of alcohol misuse have provided wonderful insights. However, majority of the studies fail to isolate individual characteristics from environmental influences.

​In a recent longitudinal study (Stephenson et al., 2020), researchers examined the lives of 1435 twin pairs to identify some individual predictors when one twin falls into early adult alcohol abuse and the other does not. Stephenson and his research team followed pairs of twins from adolescence into early adulthood. Since twins share an environment, researchers could reasonably factor out some of the environmental influence and identify some of the individual differences that possibly attributed to later problems.

See Cumulative Risk Theory for more on this topic

The Role of Environment in Drug Addiction

The environment is most amenable to influence. As a parent, we can’t ignore the environment. This research isn’t suggesting the environment is inconsequential; the findings just add to the repertoire of knowledge to assist in the fight against addiction. We lose too many bright minds. This research teams’ study must be examined under this light.

Children are resilient. Even when an environment is harmful, most adolescents survive, phasing out of unhealthy patterns as they mature into adults. Sadly, many don’t. For some, excessive binge drinking at parties and weekends morphs into something life altering as they become adults. Individual characteristics and behaviors may sound an early alarm, warning of vulnerabilities to lifelong disruptions and susceptibility to get sucked into maladaptive lifestyles. 

Parenting Styles that Create Higher Risk of Addiction

​Extensive literature has identified parenting styles that create low levels of child autonomy, provide limited monitoring, and lack warmth and involvement increase probabilities of future substance abuse. We also know that early experimentation of intoxicating substances, poor academic performance and behavior deviance are robust predictors.

​These findings were largely confirmed by Stephenson et al. when they examined their research data. However, when they compared twins to each other within these broader categories, a slightly different picture surfaced.

So, what did Stephenson and fellow researchers find? The two major predictors were early adolescent use and positive alcohol expectancies. No surprise. However, a third unexpected major predictor was academic performance with the “individuals with higher grades in adolescents compared to their co-twin reported higher young adult alcohol use” (Stephenson et al., 2020, p. 5).

Let’s stop for a moment, before we panic over little Johnny’s ‘A’ in biology, we must remember that individual findings indicate that lower academic performance is a more robust predictor of future troubles. The odd contradictory finding among twins must be filed away until additional studies discredit the finding or explain the value of its presence.

Biological Predictors of Addiction

We know that addiction runs in families. This doesn’t necessarily suggest environment, families also pass along biological traits. Lisa N. LeGrand, William G. Iacono and Matt McGue explain in their article on addiction risk factors that, “The inherited risk corresponds to a certain temperament or disposition that goes along with so-called externalizing tendencies” (LeGrand et al., 2005, p. 142). Legrand et al. continue, “In childhood, externalizing traits include hyperactivity, ‘oppositionality’ (negative and defiant behavior) and antisocial behavior, which breaks institutional and social rules. An antisocial child may lie, get in fights, steal, vandalize or skip school” (p. 142).

This “inherited risk” linked to externalizing tendencies points to a complex interplay of genetic and neurobiological factors that can increase an individual’s vulnerability to addiction. Research suggests that variations in genes affecting neurotransmitter systems, such as dopamine and serotonin, which play crucial roles in reward and impulse control, can be passed down through families. Individuals with certain genetic predispositions might experience heightened sensitivity to the rewarding effects of substances or have a reduced ability to regulate impulsive behaviors, making them more susceptible to the reinforcing properties of addictive substances and the development of compulsive use patterns.

Temperaments and Addiction

Furthermore, these inherited biological traits can manifest early in life as the externalizing behaviors described by LeGrand et al. These childhood behaviors, often indicative of underlying differences in temperament and self-regulation, can create a trajectory that increases the likelihood of substance experimentation and subsequent addiction in adolescence and adulthood.

For example, a child with high impulsivity and a tendency towards rule-breaking might be more likely to engage in risky behaviors, including substance use, and struggle with adhering to societal norms around substance consumption. Understanding these biological underpinnings is crucial for identifying individuals at higher risk and developing targeted prevention and early intervention strategies that address these inherent vulnerabilities.

Tendencies Are Not Prophecies 

It is vital to remember that tendencies are not prophecies, and associations do not equate to an inevitable destiny. While research can illuminate potential pathways and identify factors that may increase the likelihood of certain outcomes, these are not sentences handed down at birth. The human spirit possesses an incredible capacity for resilience and change. Just because a teenager or child exhibits a few traits that research suggests may correlate with heightened risk, it does not cast them onto a predetermined course. Every individual holds within them the potential for growth, adaptation, and the conscious shaping of their own future.

We all navigate the journey from childhood carrying our own unique set of experiences and inherent traits, and it’s true that some of these may present as “glitches” or vulnerabilities. These can range from temperamental inclinations to challenges in self-regulation. While some of these early patterns might, if left unaddressed, contribute to larger difficulties down the line, they are not immutable. The beauty of the human experience lies in our capacity to learn, evolve, and consciously modify our responses to ourselves and the world around us. We can work with our flaws, understand their origins, and actively choose different ways of engaging with relationships, careers, and society.

Indeed, the vast majority of us embark on this journey of self-awareness and adaptation, navigating our imperfections and striving for connection and fulfillment. We learn from our mistakes, develop coping mechanisms, and build lives that, while perhaps not flawless, are meaningful and successful in their own right. Hope resides in the understanding that awareness and effort are powerful agents of change. Recognizing a tendency is the first step towards consciously choosing a different response, and with compassion and determination, anyone can chart a course toward a brighter and more self-directed future.

Expectancies

The other two findings: early adolescent use and positive expectation of use are worthy of attention. When a child explores intoxicating substance early, their behavior should raise a red flag of warning. This danger sign is repeated found in almost all studies. We must quickly act upon early alcohol and illegal drug use with protective interventions.

The other predictor, positive alcohol expectancy, deserves some attention.

​Carlos DiClemente, known for his stages of change, explains, “expectancies are very influential in the evaluation of decisional considerations that influence movement from Contemplation to Preparation, Preparation to Action, and Action to Maintenance” (DiClemente, 2005, p. 96). Cognitive expectations of the outcome significantly influenced our decisions . DiClemente further argues that positive expectancy coupled with a minimal worry of negative consequences, such as nobody cares, is a deadly combination, facilitating a rapid movement towards addiction (p. 84).

We learn expectancies through experience. Peer influence, media exposure, and over-exuberant warnings and permissive attitudes team together to create the expectation. Caregiver and older sibling behaviors provide a road map. “Do what I say, not what I do” doesn’t work. The conflicting advice discredits words. Many parents like scare tactics, exaggerating the consequences of use by confusing the impact of causal and experimental use with the devastation of addiction. Even school drug awareness programs such as ‘Just Say No’ often convey this false message. Contrary to well-meaning advice, life doesn’t self-destruct from initial substance use.

If we design our parental advice to strike fear, our fiery sermons will lose persuasiveness once warnings fail to materialize with early experimentation. The curious child often finds initial use pleasurable, relieving social anxieties, and elevating social status among their experimenting peers. Their personal experience often discredits the negative information received from parents and programs. 

Helping Adolescents Explore the Risks and Consequences

Perhaps, as parents, mentors, or therapists, we must reach a little deeper to discover a child’s hidden expectancies, explore realities, helping the adolescent explore risks and possible hurtful consequences from continued use of intoxicating substances. Deep insights come from continued interaction where we utilize proven parenting styles to support development—a style that supports autonomous behavior, monitors child activities, and expresses warmth during substantial involvement throughout the formative years.

Basically, we must learn William Miller and Stephen Rollnick’s Motivational Interviewing Skills (Miller & Rollnick, 2012), sprinkled with Carl Rogers’ Person-Centered Therapy (Rogers, 2012).

Associated Concepts

• Detox: Detox is only the first step. Detox without the follow up of recovery practices quickly leads to failure.
• High Risk for Relapse: This article addresses several high-risk behaviors and signs preceding relapse.
• Impulsivity: This is the tendency to act on a whim without considering the consequences of one’s actions. It involves a lack of reflection, planning, or foresight, often leading to hasty decisions. Impulsivity is commonly associated with difficulty in inhibiting an immediate response and can manifest in various behaviors, such as risk-taking, sensation-seeking, and difficulty in delaying gratification.
• Stages of Change: These are also known as the transtheoretical model, describe a series of stages that individuals may go through when making a significant behavior change.
• Habit Formation: This is a core aspect of behaviorism, with key elements including stimulus-response bonds, reinforcement, contextual cues, habit loops, impulsive vs. reflective processes, and behavioral automaticity.
• Intention-Behavior Gap: This refers to the disparity between an individual’s intention to perform a certain behavior and their actual behavior. Various internal and environmental influences, lack of self-regulatory skills, and the role of habits contribute to this disparity.
• Behavior Modification: This refers to the systematic application of learning principles to assess and improve individuals’ behaviors. It involves identifying target behaviors, implementing strategies to encourage desirable behaviors, and applying consequences to discourage undesirable ones.
• Staying Motivated: Keys and techniques to stay motivated to fulfill goals.
• Self Determination Theory (SDT): This theory addresses human behavior by focusing on autonomy, competence, and relatedness as essential psychological needs. Intrinsic motivation stems from meeting these needs, supporting well-being and personal growth. SDT aims to create environments that nurture these needs, promoting autonomy and intrinsic motivation for individuals.

A Few Words by Psychology Fanatic

We don’t have to be perfect as parents, nor can we expect that perfect parenting will save every child from nasty experiences of abused freedoms. We just can do our best, confront our own demons, and persist through difficulties to be a supportive example, giving guidance, encouraging autonomous development by helping the child internalize values, and carefully monitoring for warning signs of danger.

​We never know where our efforts will pay off. We simply do our best, offer our children educated support, and cross our fingers that they will survive the critical years, and come into their own as productive, happy adults.

Last Update: December 30, 2025

References:

DiClemente, Carlos C. (2005) Addiction and Change, Second Edition: How Addictions Develop and Addicted People Recover. The Guilford Press; Second edition. ISBN-10: 146253323X; APA Record: 2017-40890-000
(Return to Main Text)

Legrand, L. N., Iacono, W. G., McGue, M. (2005) Predicting Addiction. Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society. PDF: https://www.americanscientist.org/sites/americanscientist.org/files/2005216145730_306.pdf
(Return to Main Text)

Miller, W. R., Rollnick, S. (2012). Motivational Interviewing: Helping People Change, 3rd Edition (Applications of Motivational Interviewing). The Guilford Press; 3rd edition. ISBN: 9781462552795 APA Record: 2012-17300-000
(Return to Main Text)

Rogers, Carl R. (2012) On Becoming a Person: A Therapist’s View of Psychotherapy. Mariner Books; 2nd ed. Edition. ISBN-10: 1845290577; APA Record: 1961-35106-000
(Return to Main Text)

Stephenson, M., Barr, P., Ksinan, A., Aliev, F., Latvala, A., Viken, R., Rose, R., Kaprio, J., Dick, D., & Salvatore, J. (2020). Which adolescent factors predict alcohol misuse in young adulthood? A co‐twin comparisons study. Addiction, 115(5), 877-887. DOI: 10.1111/add.14888
(Return to Main Text)