Breaking Free from Counterfactual Thinking: Living in the Present

“If I had only…” we fretfully ponder over the path we did not take. These musings are called counterfactual thinking in psychology. Counterfactual thinking theorizes that how the consequences of behaviors we could have (or should have) done in the past would have created a much better life in the present.

We pine over the things we have not done when our current life disappoints. Dredging up the unchangeable past through counterfactual thinking, we ruminate over the could-have-beens, bogging us down, overwhelming our minds with sorrow, and pulling us into those unforgiving emotional black holes. Instead of working through the problems of the present, where we have influence, we wallow in the past, where we have none.

​What is Counterfactual Thinking?

Counterfactual thinking, at its core, involves the cognitive process of imagining scenarios that diverge from reality—essentially contemplating “what could have been” had different choices or circumstances occurred. The term ‘counterfactual’ itself literally means contrary to the facts; it highlights our tendency to reflect on past events and envision alternative outcomes that might have led to a more favorable result.

This mental exercise allows individuals to explore various hypothetical situations, often rooted in regret or desire for better outcomes. For example, one might think about how their life would be vastly different if they had chosen a different career path or made distinct personal decisions. Such reflections can evoke strong emotions as people grapple with the implications of these alternate realities.

However, while counterfactual thinking can serve as a tool for understanding potential future actions based on past experiences, it also comes with inherent limitations and risks. Engaging excessively in this type of thinking may lead individuals down a path of rumination and dissatisfaction since it emphasizes missed opportunities rather than focusing on present circumstances within one’s control.

When we idealize past alternatives without acknowledging their complexities—such as the challenges that those paths may have presented—we risk falling into emotional traps characterized by sorrow and longing for what cannot be changed. Ultimately, navigating counterfactual thoughts requires balance; recognizing both their potential benefits in shaping future decisions while avoiding the pitfalls associated with dwelling too deeply on an unchangeable past is crucial for emotional well-being.

Examples of Counterfactual Thinking

• If I would have married Sally, instead of Jane, I wouldn’t be having all these marital problems now.
• If I would have become an accountant, instead of a police officer, my life would have played out much better.

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The problem with these over-generalized solutions to present problems is they provide no wisdom for present action. They just wallow in the could-have-beens. Reminiscing thoughts over the great opportunities of the past are not factual. Typically, ignoring general fundamentals of logic and probabilities. When we idealize pasts, aggrandizing the could-have-beens, we ignore all the complexities of that the alternative certainly would have included.

Sally, perhaps, we just didn’t know all that well. To postulate that marriage to her would have been better than our current marriage to Jane is just magical thinking. A relationship with Sally likely would have had its own bag of troubles.

Comparing present realities with imagined, counterfactual, and idealized alternatives is a recipe for sorrow. The present will always lose this battle.

Upward vs. Downward Counterfactuals

Counterfactuals can be categorized into two primary types: upward and downward comparisons, each serving unique psychological functions. Upward counterfactuals involve imagining better outcomes that could have occurred if different choices had been made or circumstances had been altered. For instance, one might reflect on how their life would have significantly improved if they had pursued a particular career path instead of the one they chose. While these thoughts can motivate individuals to strive for improvement and set higher goals, they may also lead to feelings of regret or dissatisfaction with their current situation.

Conversely, downward counterfactuals focus on imagining worse outcomes that were avoided—such as considering how much more challenging life could be if certain negative events had transpired. These reflections often provide comfort and relief by highlighting resilience in the face of adversity but can also foster complacency if individuals become too fixated on contrasting their present reality with a potential worse scenario.

Importantly, neither type of counterfactual is inherently positive or negative; rather, their impact hinges on various factors such as timing, context, and individual mindset. The effectiveness of these thought processes largely depends on the proximity of the imagined alternative to one’s current experiences; recent events tend to yield more relevant insights compared to distant memories that lack practical applicability.

Additionally, the logical coherence behind these speculative evaluations plays a critical role in determining whether such thoughts are constructive or detrimental. Ultimately, understanding this dynamic allows individuals to utilize counterfactual thinking purposefully—to encourage growth through upward comparisons while maintaining gratitude for present circumstances via downward reflections—thereby cultivating a balanced perspective that fosters emotional well-being and personal development in an ever-changing world.

Counterfactual Thinking and Mental Time Travel

Counterfactual thinking is similar to other episodic time mental time travel practices. We travel back in time, remembering the past (episodic memory); we travel forward into the future and imagine future possibilities (episodic future thinking). 

​​”Whereas episodic memory is about what actually happened in the past, episodic future thinking is not constrained by what will actually occur, because we can imagine a wide range of future possibilities (De Brigard & Parikh, 2019, p. 60). Counterfactual thinking is a blending of the two. We travel back in time and imagine how altering a choice would change the present. Some refer to the practice as episodic counterfactual thinking.

MRI studies suggest that similar brain areas are activated for each of these mind travel practices (De Brigard & Parikh, 2019, p. 60). The same network of brain areas is activated during theory of mind tasks. Researchers propose that, “This brain network has a more general function of supporting projection of one self in another temporal or contextual situation (including in another person), or of scene construction (Van Hoeck et al., 2016, p.225).

Explaining Our Current Sorrows

T. Franklin Murphy wrote, “While our mind is bouncing around the ill-feeling experience, exploring every nook and cranny, hoping to discover a resolution, we experience heightened stress” (Murphy, 2022). It is like a self-feeding cycle, we revisit the past when life is not going well and our ruminations fuel further dissatisfaction. Our current circumstances are not ideal, generating negative affect, and we seek answers. We ruminate—it is what we do. We seek causes for our misfortune.

Dr. Robert DeMoss, former Clinical Director of a mental health center in New Mexico, explains, “Human consciousness seems to compel us to weave the events of our lives together into a story that has continuity” (DeMoss, 1999). This coherent narrative is needs updating when life disappoints. We need to find reasons for the sorrow. So, we drift back to the past and update our autobiographical memories by manipulating the past. We are meaning making machines.

​However, in our search for answers, we over-simplify. As DeMoss explains:

“When people are asked to attribute a cause for a negative event, when equally plausible, yet competing reasons are available, they select the most ‘blameworthy’ action as the main reason (even when each contributing factor may have been equally responsible)” (DeMoss, 1999).

Counterfactual Thinking and Emotional Arousal

Neil J. Roese wrote that research has “confirmed that negative emotions may result from counterfactual thinking” (Roese, 1997, p. 133). We’ll come back to Roese’s intriguing research on counterfactual thinking.

Our thoughts, especially those ones that stick, pulling us into heart wrenching ruminations over the life we have missed hurt. Happiness is often “negatively associated with excessive, negative, self-focused processing; i.e. rumination” (Luo et al., 2016).

Murphy wrote:

“We live in the fuzzy muck of uncertainty. Science, politics, medical predictions, and nature creep in the dark corners of the unknowable. Our ‘knowledge’ tentatively rests on unproven theories and reasonable guesses. As we develop our ability to live with uncertainty, we more effectively adapt to the dynamic world of change—the world we call home” (Murphy, 2021).

However, going back to Roese’s research, the “net effect of counterfactual thinking is beneficial” (Roese, 1997, p. 133). Many researchers suggest that, “Counterfactual thinking is thought to play an important role in everyday cognition by informing and regulating our future behavior” (Mullally & Maguire, 2014, p. 1,261).

Counterfactuals as Defense Mechanisms

Negative affects inspire thought. We ruminate. Sometimes seeking helpful solutions. Other times seeking a target to blame. The underlying goal of active thoughts as a response to negative affects is to soothe the discomfort. Basically, a process explained by Sigmund Freud’s pleasure principle or the psychological concept of homeostasis.

Negative affects trigger a defensive reaction to resolve the discomforting arousal. Defense mechanisms in all their glorious power and ugly maladaptive deceptions intervene, calming the negative affects while helping or hurting our futures in the process.

Downward counterfactuals paint the present in brighter colors considering worse possibilities, soothing our feelings. Upward counterfactuals tend to evoke further unpleasantness but may also “offer useful prescriptions for efficacious future behavior” (Roese, 1997, p. 134).

See Defense Mechanisms for more information on this topic

Beneficial and Functional Counterfactual Thinking

We all are familiar with dysfunctional ruminations. We allow thoughts to churn, ignite paralyzing guilt, or blaming anger at external perceived causes, yet draw no directional wisdom from the thoughts to better our lives in the future. This is dysfunctional. We feel bad but are not motivated to change.

​Functional counterfactuals may stimulate some discomforting thoughts but the overall impact of the counterfactuals motivate helpful action.

​Both upward and downward counterfactuals may have a functional purpose. Roese explains that upward comparisons often “yield (a) negative affect but also positive motivational and informational affects.” He adds that, “Downward counterfactual comparisons with a hypothetical worse state of affairs, may evoke positive affect via a contrast effect” (Roese, 1997, p. 134).

Counterfactual Thinking and Insight

Counterfactual thinking provides valuable insight when two primary conditions are met. The first is proximity of the counterfactual alternatives to the consequence. The further in the past we travel to find blame, the less relevance the counterfactual has to the present, providing little functional wisdom for the improvement of choice in the future.

For example, practicing counterfactual thinking for a choice made three days ago, may provide legitimate information to improve choices in the future. However, revisiting the ancient past, such as who I married ten years ago, gives little or no helpful information. The thoughts are just escapisms from problems in the moment.

The second necessary component is whether the counterfactuals are reality based. When we entertain thoughts of alternatives that are ridiculous or based on information not available at the time (hindsight bias), our counterfactual thinking is unhelpful. We would all be investment geniuses if we would could buy and sell stock from the wisdom gained only after a stock grows or tanks. However, unless we take time to explore the underlying reasons for the growth or loss, our counterfactual thinking is just wishful thoughts of a fool.

Associated Concepts

• Magical Thinking: Magical thinking refers to the belief that one’s thoughts, words, or actions can influence events in the external world even when there is no logical connection between them. It is a cognitive bias where individuals believe that their wishes, desires, or intentions can directly impact outcomes without any rational explanation.
• Regret and Relief: These emotions are often associated with counterfactual thinking. Regret typically follows upward counterfactuals, where one wishes for a better outcome, and relief follows downward counterfactuals, where one is thankful that a worse outcome did not occur.
• Rational Choice Theory: Although more commonly associated with economics and sociology, this theory suggests that individuals make decisions by considering the potential costs and benefits to maximize personal advantage.
• Rational Thinking: The cognitive processes underlying counterfactual imagination may be similar to those that underlie rational thinking, as both involve evaluating alternatives and consequences.
• Theory of Mind: This is the ability to attribute mental states to oneself and others. Understanding counterfactuals is linked to theory of mind because it involves recognizing that different decisions could have led to different mental states.
• Episodic Memory and Episodic Foresight: Counterfactual thinking is similar to episodic memory, where we recall past events, and episodic future thinking, where we imagine future possibilities.

A Few Words by Psychology Fanatic

Embracing counterfactual thinking can be a powerful tool for personal growth and self-reflection, but it is essential to approach it with intention and mindfulness. Engaging in this cognitive exercise allows us to explore the myriad of possibilities that lay just beyond our current reality. When used constructively, counterfactual thinking can illuminate insights about our preferences, values, and potential paths forward. However, we must tread carefully; there’s a fine line between healthy reflection and unhealthy rumination.

The danger lies in becoming trapped in a cycle of “what ifs,” where we find ourselves mired in regret over decisions made or paths not taken. This form of magical thinking often leads us down memory lane, fixating on idealized alternatives that are unattainable—creating emotional turbulence rather than clarity.

Ultimately, the goal should be to harness the insights gained from counterfactual thoughts while remaining firmly rooted in the present moment. Instead of getting lost in an imagined past filled with regrets or longing for alternate realities, we can transform these reflections into actionable lessons that empower us today. By recognizing that every choice comes with its own set of challenges and rewards—regardless of whether they align with our original expectations—we cultivate resilience and adaptability as we navigate life’s complexities.

So go ahead—counterfactual think—but do so wisely; let your imagination inspire constructive change rather than anchor you to unchangeable moments gone by. Shift your focus toward what lies ahead—the opportunities waiting to be seized—and allow those reflections to guide you towards making choices aligned with your true aspirations moving forward.

Last Update: January 27, 2026

References:

De Brigard, F., & Parikh, N. (2019). Episodic Counterfactual Thinking. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 28(1), 59-66. DOI: 10.1177/0963721418806512
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DeMoss, Robert T. (1999). Brain Waves Through Time. 12 Principles for Understanding the Evolution of the Human Brain and Man’s Behavior. Basic Books. ISBN-10: 0306460106
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Luo, Y., Kong, F., Qi, S., You, X., & Huang, X. (2016). Resting-state functional connectivity of the default mode network associated with happiness. Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 11(3), 516-524. DOI: 10.1093/scan/nsv132
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​Murphy, T. Franklin (2022). Breaking the Cycle of Rumination: A Guide to Overcoming Negative Thoughts. Psychology Fanatic. Published: 2-22-2022; Accessed: 8-26-2022. Website: https://psychologyfanatic.com/rumination/
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Murphy, T. Franklin (2021). Exploring Uncertainty Avoidance: Coping with the Unknown. Psychology Fanatic. Published: 3-25-2021; Accessed: 8-26-2022. Website: https://psychologyfanatic.com/uncertainty-avoidance/
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Mullally, S., & Maguire, E. (2014). Counterfactual thinking in patients with amnesia. Hippocampus, 24(11), 1261-1266. DOI: 10.1002/hipo.22323
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Roese, N. (1997). Counterfactual Thinking. Psychological Bulletin, 121(1), 133-148. DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.121.1.133
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Van Hoeck, N., Ma, N., Van Overwalle, F., & Vandekerckhove, M. (2016). Counterfactual Thinking and the Episodic System. Behavioural Neurology, 23(4). DOI: 10.3233/BEN-2010-0301
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