The Role of Outcome Expectancies in Motivation

Outcome expectancies matter. We are not motivated to accomplish tasks and goals that we doubt we can accomplish. We lack confidence in our self-efficacy. When we believe success is beyond our ability, motivation quickly wanes and then when we encounter slight interference. Many expectancies exist beneath consciousness. We expertly hide them from outward knowledge. Yet, they energetically leap to action when failure looms, screaming in proud triumph, “I told you so. You can’t do this.” These expectations seal the outcome. Accordingly, we do as we believe we can do.

Expectations play a primary role in behavior. As Claude M. Steiner once wrote, “In general, expected behavior is likely to occur simply because it is expected” (Steiner, 1984). In psychology, the ability to imagine outcomes under varying circumstances is referred to as episodic foresight.

Introduction to Outcome Expectancies and Behavior Motivation

Outcome expectancy plays a pivotal role in shaping our motivation and driving our behavior. In essence, it refers to an individual’s belief or expectation that a particular behavior will lead to a specific outcome or consequence. This concept is central to various psychological theories of motivation, including expectancy theory and social cognitive theory. We are more likely to engage in behaviors that we believe will result in desirable outcomes, while we tend to avoid actions that we anticipate will lead to negative or undesirable consequences. This cognitive process of weighing potential outcomes heavily influences our decisions and actions in various aspects of life, from academic pursuits and career choices to social interactions and health behaviors.

The strength of our outcome expectancy directly impacts the level of motivation we experience. When we have a strong belief that our efforts will lead to a positive outcome that we value, our motivation is significantly enhanced. Conversely, if we doubt the likelihood of achieving a desired outcome, or if we anticipate negative consequences, our motivation diminishes. For example, a student who believes that studying diligently will result in a good grade is more likely to be motivated to study compared to a student who believes that their efforts will have little impact on their academic performance. Similarly, an individual who believes that regular exercise will improve their health and well-being is more likely to adhere to an exercise routine than someone who doubts its benefits.

Furthermore, outcome expectancies are not solely based on personal experiences; they are also influenced by observational learning, social norms, and cultural beliefs. We learn about potential outcomes by observing the experiences of others, and we are influenced by the expectations and values of our social environment. This highlights the importance of social context in shaping our motivations and behaviors. By understanding the powerful influence of outcome expectancies, we can develop more effective strategies for promoting desired behaviors in various settings, such as education, healthcare, and the workplace.

Three Types of Outcome Expectancies

According to Albert Bandura’s social cognitive theory there are three kinds of expectancies:

Situation-outcome expectancies: This refer to beliefs about how events are connected. A realistic construction of the future, possible interferences, and our role in those events. When these expectations are deceitfully simple, our mycotic view of how everything will turnout during the change process may be disrupted when events play out in powerfully unexpected ways.
Outcome expectancy: This refers to beliefs about the consequences of performing a behavior. Outcome expectancy is a prediction of how a behavior leads to a consequence. Bandura elaborates, “Incidence of behavior that has been positively reinforced does not increase if individuals believe, based on other information, that the same actions will not be rewarded on future occasions” (Bandura, 1977, p. 192).
Self-efficacy expectations: These refer to beliefs about one’s ability to perform a particular behavior. Bandura explains “expectations of personal mastery affect both initiation and persistence of coping behavior. The strength of people’s convictions in their own effectiveness is likely to affect whether they will even try to cope with given situations” (Bandura, 1977, p. 193).

Bandura explains that “in this conceptual system, expectations of personal mastery affects both initiation and persistence of coping behaviors” He continues, “the strength of people’s convictions in their own effectiveness is likely to affect whether they will even try to cope with given situations.

Bandura differentiates between expectancies because we can have one without the others. A person, for example, may rightly expect that a certain consequence is the reward of a particular behavior, however, they do not expect they have the skill to accomplish the necessary behavior for the reward.

Factors Influencing Outcome Expectancy

Several factors can shape an individual’s outcome expectancy, including:

Past Experiences: Previous successes or failures can influence one’s beliefs about future outcomes. Positive experiences tend to enhance outcome expectancy, while negative experiences can diminish it.
Social Influences: Observing the experiences of others and receiving feedback from peers, mentors, or authority figures can impact outcome expectancy. Social support and encouragement can strengthen positive expectancies.
Personal Beliefs and Attitudes: An individual’s mindset, such as having a growth mindset versus a fixed mindset, can affect their outcome expectancy. Those with a growth mindset are more likely to believe in the possibility of positive outcomes through effort and learning.

Enhancing Positive Outcome Expectancy

Given its importance in motivation and behavior change, we should develop positive outcome expectancy. We can employ various strategies to achieve this goal.

Setting Realistic Goals

Setting achievable and specific goals can help individuals experience success and build positive outcome expectancies. Breaking down long-term goals into smaller, manageable steps can make the desired outcomes seem more attainable.

Art Markman explains that “at times the distance between where you are and where you want to be is still too large, even though your initial excitement has carried you some long way. In that case, you need to set some intermediate goals to help you continue to progress through the middle.” Markman adds, “As your goal begins to feel attainable, that narrowing of the gap between the present and the future can drive you to work harder. You may be able to overcome the doldrums in the middle by focusing on the distance you still need to cover” (Markman, 2015).

See SMART Goals for more information on this topic

Providing Positive Reinforcement

Offering encouragement, praise, and rewards for efforts and achievements can reinforce positive outcome expectancies. T. Franklin Murphy wrote, “Positive reinforcement involves providing a reward or pleasant consequence immediately after a desired behavior occurs. This serves to increase the likelihood that the behavior will be repeated in the future. For example, if someone successfully completes their daily workout routine and feels a sense of accomplishment (reward), they are more likely to continue exercising regularly” (Murphy, 2024).

Positive reinforcement helps individuals associate their actions with desirable outcomes, increasing motivation.

Modeling and Mentorship

Observing role models or mentors who have achieved desired outcomes can inspire and strengthen outcome expectancy. Bandura posits that, “New social responses may be acquired, or the characteristics of existing response hierarchies may be considerably modified as a function of observing the behaviors of others and its response consequences without the observer’s performing any overt responses himself or receiving any direct reinforcement during the acquisition period” (Bandura et al., 1963).

Mentors can provide guidance, share experiences, and offer support to help individuals believe in their potential for success.

See Modeling Psychology for more information on this topic

Building Self-Efficacy

Enhancing self-efficacy is a vital aspect of personal growth and development. When individuals engage in skill development, practice, and face challenges head-on, they cultivate a belief in their ability to succeed. This newfound confidence plays a crucial role in shaping their outcome expectancy—the anticipation of positive results from their efforts. Imagine trying something new, like learning to play an instrument or tackling a challenging project at work. As you practice and gradually improve your skills, you begin to feel more capable and empowered. This sense of competence not only motivates you to keep going but also leads you to expect favorable outcomes from your endeavors.

Albert Bandura highlighted the importance of these efficacy expectations by stating that they influence “how much effort people will expend and how long they will persist in the face of obstacles and adverse experiences” (Bandura, 1977, p. 194). For instance, if you’ve ever attempted a difficult task—like training for a marathon or studying for an important exam—you may have experienced moments of doubt along the way. However, as you overcome hurdles and witness your progress, your belief in yourself strengthens.

In turn, this growing confidence encourages you to push through challenges rather than give up easily. By fostering self-efficacy through consistent practice and resilience, we can create a positive cycle where our expectations drive us toward success while reinforcing our motivation along the journey.

See Self-Efficacy for more on this topic

Outcome Expectancy and Addiction

Researchers have delved into how outcome expectancies can influence both the exploration of addictive substances and the likelihood of relapse. Positive and healthy expectations play a crucial role in building self-confidence during recovery, which is essential for breaking free from addiction. When individuals believe that they can successfully overcome their challenges, it empowers them to pursue healthier choices and resist temptations that could lead them back to substance use.

“Alcohol recidivism continues to be a challenging issue in large part due to outcome expectancies,” argues Reesor et al. They explain that “expectations have been extensively studied in behavioral medicine and found to affect multiple health behaviors, including alcohol consumption, smoking, and weight management” (Reesor et al., 2017). These expectations regarding treatment outcomes are often targeted during therapy sessions. While healthy beliefs about recovery can foster motivation and resilience, negative expectations may hinder progress by discouraging effort, ultimately increasing the risk of relapse.

Expectations Often Lead to Relapse

T. Franklin Murphy discusses the importance of expectations of challenging events, during the recovery process as a way to prepare for high-risk situations. He warns, “The motivational pricks that pushed detox lose potency; motivation wanes and the decisional balance for sobriety adjusts. In the dark weeks and months of change, demons of relapse haunt the lonely halls.” The answer is preparation, expecting the challenges.

Murphy explains, “Recovery is an epic struggle between motivation and temptation. The future teeters between success and failure, waiting to see which power prevails. Drug and alcohol abusers must prepare for these challenges, planning tactics and escapes to combat the urges. The warrior must effectively respond to high-risk junctures for recovery to succeed” (Murphy, 2020).

Mary Addenbrooke comments about early recovery, “Immediately after a person stops. . . they probably have no idea what their expectations of themselves should be. In their addiction people lose track of who they are. The first, tentative steps without the drug have to be taken with this as a starting point” (Addenbrooke, 2011, p. 116).

Cognitive Reappraisal

Most cognitive treatments utilize cognitive reappraisal to change negative expectations of failure. Positive expectations can motivate recovery. However, expectations must not be unrealistic. Unrealistic expectations create frustrations and disappointment later.

Carlos DiClemente states that, “Expectancies are very influential in the evaluation of decisional considerations that influence movement from Contemplation to Preparation, Preparation to Action, and Action to Maintenance” (DiClemente, 2005, p. 96). DiClemente theorizes that expectations move us through the stages of change, either towards addiction or recovery.

Do we expect that going back to the bottle will resolve our inner emotional turmoil, or do we remember the pain that led to our desires to begin the recovery process? Our expectation of the behavior (going to the bar) will determine whether we overcome the temptation or succumb to the faulty expectations.

Outcome Expectancy in Different Contexts

Outcome expectancy is a versatile concept that applies to various domains of life, influencing behavior in significant ways.

Education and Learning

In educational settings, outcome expectancy can affect students’ motivation and academic performance. When students believe that their efforts will lead to successful outcomes, such as high grades or mastery of a subject, they are more likely to engage in learning activities and persist through challenges. Conversely, low outcome expectancy can lead to disengagement and poor academic performance.

Health and Wellbeing

Outcome expectancy is a critical factor in health-related behaviors. For example, individuals who believe that adopting healthy behaviors, such as exercising regularly or quitting smoking, will lead to positive health outcomes are more likely to engage in these behaviors. Health interventions often aim to enhance positive outcome expectancies to promote behavior change.

Research has found that outcome expectancy is an element determining whether or not a person will implement positive health behaviors. Ralf Schwarzer and Aleksandra Luszczynska explain, “Individuals high in pre-action self-efficacy imagine success, anticipate potential outcomes of diverse strategies, and are more likely to initiate a new behavior” (Schwarzer & Luszczynska, 2008).

Work and Career

In the workplace, outcome expectancy influences job performance, career aspirations, and job satisfaction. Employees who expect that their hard work will result in promotions, bonuses, or recognition are more motivated to perform well. Organizations can foster positive outcome expectancies by providing clear pathways for career advancement and recognizing employees’ achievements.

Associated Concepts

Self-Efficacy: This is the belief in one’s ability to succeed in specific situations or accomplish a task. It plays a significant role in determining our outcome expectations.
Reciprocal Determinism: A concept from Albert Bandura’s Social Cognitive Theory, which suggests that a person’s behavior, environment, and personal factors (like cognitive skills or attitudes) interact to shape each other.
Observational Learning: Also known as modeling, this is the process of learning behaviors by watching the actions of others and the outcomes of those actions. Observational learning can influence a person’s outcome expectations by providing information on what consequences to expect..
Value Theory: This theory posits that the motivation to engage in a behavior is determined by the expectation that the behavior will lead to a certain outcome (expectancy) and the value that the individual places on that outcome (value).
Goal Setting: The process of identifying something that you want to accomplish and establishing measurable goals and timeframes. Outcome expectations can influence the goals we set.
Behavioral Intention: This refers to a person’s perceived likelihood that they will engage in a behavior. Outcome expectations can influence behavioral intentions, as people tend to intend to perform behaviors that they believe will have positive outcomes.
Galatea Effect: This refers to a psychological phenomenon where individuals improve their performance because they believe in their own abilities. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy where high expectations lead to high achievement.
Locus of Control: This is the degree to which people believe that they have control over the outcome of events in their lives, as opposed to external forces beyond their control. People with an internal locus of control may have stronger outcome expectations.

A Few Words by Psychology Fanatic

Some newer research questions Bandura’s model of outcome expectancies and behavior. “Several studies also show the possibility of a reverse causality (Williams, 2010). Perhaps, reverse causality is partially responsible for the previous findings. Then, again, maybe it’s not. The nature of scientific research is there will always be competing ideas and contradicting findings.

I suppose I will never discover the complete truth. The truth is, I don’t expect to find a theory that explains life. It is not the purpose of Psychology Fanatic. We explore theories and allow people to decide whether a particular theory (in whole or in part) adds to their understanding. They then can choose whether or not to implement the theory (in whole or in part) into their therapy practices or personal self-improvement work.

Last Update: June 19, 2025

References:

Addenbrooke, Mary (2011) Survivors of Addiction: Narratives of Recovery. Routledge; 1 edition. ISBN: 9781583917251; APA Record: 2011-15496-000
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Bandura, A. (1977). Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review, 84(2), 191-215. DOI: 10.1037/0033-295X.84.2.191
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Bandura, Albert, Ross, Dorothea; Ross, Sheila (1963). Vicarious reinforcement and imitative learning. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 67(6), 601-607. DOI: 10.1037/h0045550
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DiClemente, Carlos C. (2005) Addiction and Change, Second Edition: How Addictions Develop and Addicted People Recover. The Guilford Press; Second edition. ISBN-10: 146253323X; APA Record: 2017-40890-000
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Markman, Art (2015). Smart Change: Five Tools to Create New and Sustainable Habits in Yourself and Others. Tarcher-Perigee; Reprint edition. ISBN-10: 039916412X
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Murphy, T. Franklin (2020). Relapse Prevention. Avoiding and Preparing for High-Risk Situations. Psychology Fanatic. Published: 1-29-2020; Accessed: 8-30-2022. Website: https://psychologyfanatic.com/high-risk-situations-for-relapse/
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Murphy, T. Franklin (2024). Habit Formation. Psychology Fanatic. Published: 6-26-2024; Accessed: December 12-20-2024. Website: https://psychologyfanatic.com/habit-formation/
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Reesor, L., Vaughan E.M., Hernandez D.C., Johnston C.A. (2017) Addressing Outcomes Expectancies in Behavior Change. American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine. Nov; 11 (6). DOI: 10.1177/1559827617722504
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Schwarzer, Ralf, & Luszczynska, Aleksandra (2008). How to Overcome Health-Compromising Behaviors: The Health Action Process Approach. European Psychologist, 13(2), 141-151. DOI: 10.1027/1016-9040.13.2.141
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Steiner, Claude M. (1984). Games Alcoholics Play. Ballantine Books; Reissue edition. ISBN-13: ‎978-0345323835
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Williams, D. (2010). Outcome Expectancy and Self-Efficacy: Theoretical Implications of an Unresolved Contradiction. Personality and Social Psychology Review,14(4), 417-425. DOI: 10.1177/1088868310368802
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